The Bucs are already considered one of the biggest winners of the offseason after poaching Tom Brady from New England on a 2 year/50M deal. This was a great fit for both sides as the Bucs needed a QB of Brady's pedigree, a proven winner and leader with a high football IQ that makes good decisions with the ball, and Brady gets a massive upgrade of weapons with Tampa's pass catchers who are superior to New England's.
While the Bucs hit the ground running this offseason by making a massive upgrade at the most important position, there is still more work to be done to polish the roster and try to make the jump from "pretty good" to "championship contender". Entering the draft, let's revisit the Bucs biggest needs and explore some scenarios in each round where these can be addressed.
In order of importance, the Bucs' biggest draft needs are:
Primary Needs
1) Offensive Tackle
2) Running Back
Secondary Needs
1) Wide Receiver 3
2) Interior Offensive Linemen
3) QB of the future
Ancillary Needs
1) Safety
2) Edge rusher
3) Interior Defensive Linemen
Round 1: Secure an Elite Offensive Tackle
As great as Tom Brady is and as great as the Bucs' pass catchers are, none of that will matter without fortifying the offensive line and making sure Brady has protection and ample time for plays to develop. Furthermore this player should not only protect Tom Brady for 2 years but also whoever his successor is for hopefully 8 years after that. The consensus is there are 4 offensive tackles in this class that are worthy of a top 10-15 pick. They are:
Tristan Wirfs (Iowa)
Jedrick Wills (Alabama)
Mekhi Becton (Louisville)
Andrew Thomas (Georgia)
The Bucs own the 14th pick, which means they have 3 options.
Tristan Wirfs (Iowa)
Jedrick Wills (Alabama)
Mekhi Becton (Louisville)
Andrew Thomas (Georgia)
The Bucs own the 14th pick, which means they have 3 options.
1) Stick to pick 14, and hope one of these 4 guys falls to them.
2) Trade up to ensure they can land one of these 4.
3) Trade back if all 4 are taken before their pick and acquire more picks.
A couple of notes. In the scenario the Bucs trade up, they need to do so without conceding their 2nd round pick, as they will likely need that to acquire a stud running back. If they have to give up a 2021 2nd round pick then so be it.
In the scenario the Bucs trade back, the next best offensive tackle available is Josh Jones (Houston), but Jones probably doesn't warrant a pick inside the top 20. The Bucs should aim to find a trade partner probably between pick 21 and 25 and acquire additional picks, preferably including round 2 and 3 pick(s), for their troubles.
Round 2: Secure a stud Running Back
Brady also operates best when he's supported by a solid run game, which takes the load off of the passing game and brings balance to the offense. Currently, the Bucs just have Ronald Jones, who is a decent running back but not elite and certainly not an every-down back. The Bucs need a running back that can at least take 50% of the carries, or maybe even ascend to the workhorse of the run game. Ideally, this player can also catch passes out of the backfield and help in pass protection when the defense blitzes.
Once again, there are 4 top-tier running backs in the class:
DeAndre Swift (Georgia)
Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin)
JK Dobbins (Ohio State)
Clyde Edwards-Hellaire (LSU)
It would be a big surprise if more than one of these guys went in the first round, and with the Bucs picking at 45 ideally 2, maybe even 3 of these players will still be on the board. The Bucs seem to be most linked to Taylor and Edwards-Hellaire in mock drafts, Taylor has a rare combination of size, speed, and cutting ability, but isn't the best pass catcher and occasionally fumbles. Edwards-Hellaire lacks the explosiveness of the others, but might be the most well-rounded prospect at the position. Swift and Dobbins are backs with speed who make people miss but they operate better in open space than as power backs running between the tackles.
Round 3: This is the pivot point. Probably a WR3, but could also further stabilize the o-line, add a QB of the future, or supplement the defense.
If I were making this pick, and I had addressed the needs described in rounds 1 and 2, I would take a WR3 here. The Bucs have arguably the league's best WR duo in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but they need a reliable third option, especially if one of those two gets injured. This is a very deep class for wide receivers but the most coveted options are going to be off the board in the first 2 rounds. Still, there are going to be a few with great upside that slip to the third round and the Bucs should take one here. Some prospects I'm hoping slip to round 3:
KJ Hamler (Penn State)
Michael Pittman Jr, (USC)
Chase Claypool (Notre Dame)
Hamler has lightning quick speed and could be a lethal weapon for any offense in open space. Claypool is a big-bodied receiver with a high vertical who can use his physicality to make catchers over smaller defeders. Pittman is a hybrid of the two, not as big as Claypool, not as fast as Hamler, but had an impressive senior season at USC.
If the Bucs don't go receiver, adding another piece to the offensive line wouldn't hurt. This time that would mean adding someone to the interior of the line who can help create holes for the running backs and also aid in pass protection when necessary. As aforementioned, keeping 42 year old Brady off of his back is a massive must so investing heavily in the o-line makes sense.
The Bucs could also look to find Brady's successor with this pick. Personally I would probably wait until next year to do this but there are a few good options who could still be available in round 3 who could develop and learn from Brady for 2 years before taking over. Another reason to think about a QB here is because is current back up, Blaine Gabbert, is meh, and if Brady did get injured Tampa needs a QB they can plug in and still run the offense successfully (I'm also not opposed, if cheap enough, to resigning Winston or Cam Newton or Joe Flacco for this reason, but those are not long term solutions.)
3 QB's I would be interested in if they slipped to round 3 are:
Jacob Eason (Washington)
Jalen Hurts (Oklahoma)
Jake Fromm (Georgia)
Eason and Fromm are very similar to Brady but with slightly different strengths. Eason has a strong arm and can make all the throws in tight windows and press the ball down the field, but accuracy needs some polishing. Fromm is a very accurate passer who has played in big games but lacks the arm strength and upside of Eason. Hurts is vastly different from the other 2 as Hurts is a dual threat quarterback who can both run and pass. He probably isn't as good of a passer as the other 2 but the ability to make plays with his legs is a big bonus.
Lastly, Tampa can use a pick here to add a piece to its defense. The defense made immense strides, they were a top 5 defense the last 6 games, but there are some members of the defense who either are getting older or have expiring contracts. Adding some depth on the d-line or in the secondary wouldn't be the worst idea.
In Conclusion
To me this draft is a big success if the Bucs secure one of the 4 top tier tackles and one of the 4 top tier running backs. This is essentially a 2 year championship window given Brady's age and contract and the Bucs should go all in to make the roster great. What happens in rounds 3-7 could go a number of ways but that's the beauty of the draft, we all have a common goal of making the Bucs great but have different visions on how to get there. I'm super excited to see how this unfolds Thursday!
